My newest survey is as follows:
- Apple has lower its 2024 Imaginative and prescient Professional shipments to 400–450k items (vs. market consensus of 700–800k items or extra).
- Apple lower orders earlier than launching Imaginative and prescient Professional in non-US markets, which implies that demand within the US market has fallen sharply past expectations, making Apple take a conservative view of demand in non-US markets.
- Apple is reviewing and adjusting its head-mounted show (HMD) product roadmap, so there could also be no new Imaginative and prescient Professional mannequin in 2025 (the earlier expectation was that there could be a brand new mannequin in 2H25/4Q25). Apple now expects Imaginative and prescient Professional shipments to say no YoY in 2025.
The weak-than-expected Imaginative and prescient Professional demand implies that the next new developments are prone to be beneath market expectations.
- MR headset units. The problem for Imaginative and prescient Professional is to deal with the shortage of key purposes, value, and headset consolation with out sacrificing the see-through consumer expertise. In distinction, VR can be a distinct segment market, however no less than there are confirmed profitable purposes (video games), and development visibility is best than MR.
- Pancake. Because the improve of optical specs for smartphones has slowed down for a number of years, buyers anticipate Pancake, which has a considerably larger unit value than lenses, to turn out to be a brand new progress driver for the optical sector. Weaker-than-expected shipments of Imaginative and prescient Professional will decrease Pancake’s contribution to the optical business within the foreseeable future than buyers’ expectations.
- Micro OLED. Imaginative and prescient Professional/MR headset is essentially the most essential utility of Micro OLED. With key purposes not rising as anticipated, the timeframe of mass manufacturing and adoption of Micro OLEDs in different small-sized client electronics units might be delayed.